Journal Entry

Fire and Rain

The Northwest United States is in the midst of an historically extreme heat wave. Temperatures will be around 115 degrees in Portland and 105 degrees in Seattle. This is truly unprecedented! And scary for those who live there.

Car dashboard display showing extreme temperatureMy daughter sent me this picture from the dashboard of the ambulance she was working on in Portland, Oregon on Monday! (Photo courtesy of Leah Goldner)

The immediate cause of this extreme heat is a “heat dome” which has locked the Jet Stream (a band of very fast moving winds high up in the atmosphere) in a very unusual pattern where it is flowing much farther North than usual. The Jet Stream helps move weather across the United States, so this locked pattern is trapping all of this hot air, which now has no place to go. This is so unusual that it has been referred to as a “thousand-year event”. (In other words, if you were somehow to live for a thousand years, you would only see such extreme heat once.)

Weather map showing Omega Blocking patternThis image shows how the “heat dome” over the Northwest is keeping the Jet Stream moving in a locked pattern flowing much farther North than usual. Photo courtesy of CBS News.

At the same time, and for the same reason, there is intense flooding in the midwest. Again, because of this same blocked weather pattern and the movement of the Jet Stream, there is a stationary front locked over the midwest. A stationary front will result in rainfall, and with the front stalled over the same location, people in the midwest are experiencing days and days of heavy rainfall.

[This short video](

) from CBS News explains both weather phenomena really well.

Apparently Boston is also in the midst of a heat wave (temps in the 90’s this week), which is not that unusual, but this is already our second such heat wave before we’ve even hit July.

What Goes Around Comes Around

So I’ve been thinking a lot about the connection between extreme weather events like these and climate change - and the reason behind our research expedition.

In a nutshell, the atmosphere is warming because of increased greenhouse gases (like carbon dioxide and methane) released by burning fossil fuels. (I’ll be doing a deep dive into the causes of climate change in a future blog post - stay tuned!)

The increase in greenhouse traps heat (much like how a greenhouse works - hence the name). The increased temperature will result in more extreme weather events, and it’s not hard to understand why. Increased temperature means more energy in the atmosphere, and energy is what drives extreme weather events.

This animation shows how increased atmospheric temperature will drive more extreme heat events.

But what does this have to do with the Arctic? Well, because of the way heat is distributed around the globe, the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet. And this is causing a dramatic loss in sea ice and glacier ice. It’s important to note that sea ice is different from glacier ice. Much more on that in a later post, but what you need to know is that sea ice is ice that forms over the ocean, and is, at most, 4-5 meters thick - although most areas are only 2-3 meters thick. Sea ice is mostly frozen ocean water. Glacier ice forms on land, and is much thicker (sometimes thousands of feet thick).

As a result of warmer air and water temperatures, there is far less sea ice now in the Arctic Ocean than there was even a few decades ago.

Sea ice minimum in 1979This image shows the minimum sea ice in September 1979. (Photo courtesy of NASA Global Climate Change at climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/) Sea ice minimum in 2020This image shows the minimum sea ice in September 2020. (Photo courtesy of NASA Global Climate Change at climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/)

Sea ice melting does not contribute to sea level rise. (This is not the case for glacier ice, which I will discuss in future blog posts.) But it does result in a decreased albedo, or reflectivity, of that part of the globe. This is because ice reflects most light (which is why it is white), but the ocean absorbs most of the light.

This change in reflectivity and the increased absorption of solar energy can affect wind and weather patterns in the Arctic, and it also has effects in the lower latitudes. Part of the reason that weather patterns are becoming more unpredictable is precisely because of the change in wind and weather in the Arctic - a direct result of climate change.

[This video](

) from Yale Climate Connections explains the connection between changes in the Arctic and changes in the mid-latitudes really well.

To be clear, weather is extremely complex and there are many different aspects of the atmosphere, the oceans, and the land that interact to create specific weather events. Because of this complexity, it’s hard to say exactly whether a particular event - like this week’s unprecedented heat wave in the Northwest - is tied to climate change. But what is clear is that as the atmosphere continues to warm, we can expect to see more extreme weather events.

So, I say, “What goes around comes around,” because the main cause of the changes in the Arctic is because of the activities of industrial society - most of which is in the mid and lower latitudes, not the Arctic. And then, the changes in the Arctic are now being felt - not just in sea level rise, but also in the increase in extreme weather. The choices we make as individuals, and more importantly, as a society, have an effect on the Arctic. And then it will inevitably come back to bite us, as we're seeing quite dramatically with this week's extreme weather.

Rays of Hope

I want to end on a positive note. While we’re “stuck” in quarantine here in Oslo, we have the ability to walk around. Fortunately the weather has been excellent, so there’s lots to explore outside in Oslo. During our various walks and runs, I have noticed the huge number of electric cars in this city. Lots of Nissan Leafs, Teslas, and my personal favorite (because it’s the car we own back home) Hyundai Kona EVs. I’ve also noticed electric trucks, and even electric construction equipment! The technology clearly exists to move our society off fossil fuels. Given the huge contribution that fossil fuel-burning vehicles has on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, switching over to electric vehicles will make a big difference. So seeing all of these electric vehicles is definitely a ray of hope!

Electric digging machine in OsloOne of several pieces of electric construction equipment I saw in downtown Oslo. Electric car in OsloMy favorite electric car, the Kona EV, which I have seen all over Oslo along with many other EV brands.

Comments

Tue, 06/29/2021 - 08:10

Charlotte Pappas

Hello Mr. Goldener,

It was intriguing to hear about the extreme heat wave that is happening in the Northwest United States. I had actually not heard much about it before I read this post, so I was very surprised to learn that it will be around 115 degrees in Portland, Oregon in the coming days. From this information, I can imagine that this heat wave could be very scary and worrying for people who live in the Northwest United States, especially people who do not have an air container or cooling system, or young babies who cannot yet sweat to cool off. Therefore, I am now wondering what techniques, objects, or activities people in the Northwest United States are using to stay cool from the heat, and are they doing activities such as mostly staying inside, or going to indoor pools?

Furthermore, I was also interested in learning about the immediate cause of the extreme heat in the Northwest United States. I have also not heard of heat domes before, and I was astonished to find out that they are able to allow the Jet Stream winds in the high atmosphere to move in an different and unusual pattern that allows hot air to get trapped, and result in the area that this hot air is trapped in to have very high temperatures for a period of time. Hence, from this, I am now conjecturing why are people saying that this type of extreme heat and heat dome pattern only occurs once in a thousand years? I am pondering this, because now, with the impact of climate change affecting many weather patterns on the Earth, I would expect that this extreme heat that the Northwest United States is experiencing would slowly start to occur more frequently then one time every thousand years, since from this post, I found out that the increased atmospheric temperatures caused by climate change is expected to cause more extreme heat events.

Furthermore, I was additionally intrigued in discovering more about how climate change is affecting the Arctic, in ways such as dramatic losses in sea and glacial ice melting in this area. I can infer that this extreme melting in the Arctic means that sea levels in this area in around the world are likely rising, due to the surge of water from the thawed ice. Moreover, I looked up some areas of the world that will be drastically affected from these rising sea levels, and I found that many cities that a lot of people live in, such as Osaka, in Japan, Shanghai, in China, Miami, in the United States, Mumbai, in India, and even New York City, in the United States, are at risk of intensified flooding and even being almost completely covered with ocean in the next thousand years. Thus, I presume that many urban areas getting covered with ocean would result in the Earth to have increasingly less land and shelter people to live in, which is one reason why action against climate change, such as using renewable energy sources instead of burning fossil fuels, should be taken in the coming years to prevent these life impacting events from occurring.

Finally, one last wondering that I have from this post is that how are scientists able to estimate the time period in which climate change will drastically change an area of the world, such as how they predicted that summer sea ice on the surface of the Arctic Ocean could disappear entirely by 2035? Do scientists use any particular tools for this task, such as thermometer devices, and nutrient measuring tools? In addition, how accurate are the estimated dates scientists come up with in which climate change will drastically change an area of the world proven to be?

That is all of my wonderings and ideas for now.
Charlotte

Fri, 07/02/2021 - 03:17

Mark Goldner

Hi Charlotte, thanks for your interest in my blog! Yes, I agree that it was super scary for folks in the Northwest. Fortunately it seems that the temperatures have dropped to less extremes by now. But your comment makes me think about how important it is for us to learn to adapt to a changing climate. At the same time we continue to fight to reduce carbon emissions to prevent climate change from getting worse, we need to make sure that we protect people - especially those who are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. (I have many family members in the Portland area - including my daughter - and they are fortunate have air conditioning in their homes. But many lower-income people do not. Imagine how unbearable it must have been to be stuck in a house with no air conditioning. Not only would that be uncomfortable, but it was, in some cases, life-threatening...)

I think you're also probably right that we can expect these "thousand year events" to happen more frequently because with more heat energy in the atmosphere, these types of patterns will probably become more common. All the more reason to focus resources on adapting to these changes.

Your last set of questions is very important to understand - which is essentially, what tools do we use to make forecasts into the future? Scientists use computer modeling to do this. But, creating a forecast model only works if you can take into account all the variables that go into a system. And the climate system is very very complex. And how do you know exactly how different parts of the system interact? That's where geologists - like Dr. Brigham-Grette - come in. By analyzing what happened in the past we can see how different parts of the system affect each other. For example, what is the connection between higher carbon dioxide levels and the amount of glacier ice? Sediment cores and ice cores are an important tool for looking into the past this way, because information about different parts of the natural world are preserved in layers of sediment (mud) and ice. You also asked about the accuracy of the models - the more information you have about the past, the more accurately you can predict the future. When you look at climate models, though, the scientists will almost always let you know the limits of the accuracy. (You'll often see a spread in a graph, for example, that shows the range of probabilities based on the model they created.)

Sun, 09/05/2021 - 09:22

Isabella Shahrooz

Hello Mr Goldner,
I can't believe how much sea ice has been lost. Has the loss of the ice effected anyone? I would love to help keep what ice we have left is there anything we can do to help? And are there things we can use to replace greenhouse gases?

Mon, 09/06/2021 - 11:54

Mark Goldner

Hi Isabella, the glacier ice in the area we were studying doesn't have much direct effect on people, because the population up there is so tiny and doesn't depend on the glacier for survival. However, there are glaciers in places like the Himalayas that are the source of water for millions of people. If that ice is lost, it could have a dramatic effect on the populations of countries like Nepal and India. And the loss of sea ice, which is frozen ocean water, is devastating for native Arctic populations (like the Inuit of Northern Canada and Greenland) who depend on sea ice for their livelihood (hunting seals and fishing, for example).

Thankfully, there are lots of things we can do to avoid using greenhouse gases. For example, we can avoid driving, or use electric cars or bikes. We can use solar and wind power. And one really powerful thing we can do is to eat less meat. It turns out that cattle are a huge emitter of carbon dioxide and methane (two greenhouse gases). Lowering the amount of meat we eat can have a dramatic effect. Of course, we need to do more than just act as individuals. That's why I was really psyched to see you at our first Climate Action Team meeting! We are going to work as a team to figure out how to raise our voices so that we can convince our leaders to implement change as a society.

Sun, 09/05/2021 - 14:15

Emma (Mark) Es…

Dear Mr. Goldner,

During most of June and all of July, I was in Mexico and since I don't really keep up with the news (which I probably should), I wasn't aware about the heat dome nor the floods, even though there were some in Mexico City. I think it's just incredible how much damage we as humans have made and are still doing to our planet knowing how bad the effect is. And even though a lot of people are trying to make it right and are trying to save our planet, since we're the only species can make that impact just like we did with everything else (good and bad), we can't save Earth if not everyones is putting their part, even if it's small. And even though it's going to be difficult to heal Earth 100% because of all the damage we have all made, we will have to do our part to help Earth get healthy.

I think it’s really interesting how nature can make these incredible things, some of which are ‘safe’ and beautiful and other the are incredibly dangerous, but is still so mesmerising in the way that you don’t know how it happened, but is so intriguing and you just start going into this rabbit hole to see find you can understand how it came to be.

In the first link to the CBS news video It mentions that people in the Southwest of Canada (and Canada it self) isn’t used to these high temperatures, so they don’t have things like ACs in their houses to cool them down, so my question is; “How exactly are people in Canada cool down? Since the heat dome, the floods, and covid, along with other things, are surely making it really difficult for people to just buy an AC, since you would have to then install it.”

Sincerely,

Mark Escalante.

Mon, 09/06/2021 - 12:10

Mark Goldner

Hi Mark, what a thoughtful comment! I think the contrast you paint between the beautiful things in nature on one hand and the destructive power of nature on the other, is very profound. You raise a very important question as well, which I think can be generalized to: can humans adapt to a warming world? It's important for our society to wrestle with that question. Many people are getting involved with something called "climate resiliency", which is trying to create systems for helping people cope with and adapt to our changing climate. And, as with many things in our society, those folks who are more disadvantaged, and less white, are those who will likely suffer the most. So there is a call for connecting racism with the environmental movement - this idea is called "environmental justice". If you're interested in getting involved, I am hoping that our Heath Climate Action Team will work on this broader issue.

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